Symptomatic fracture incidence in elderly men and women: The Dubbo osteoporosis epidemiology study (DOES)

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Abstract
This longitudinal population-based study documents the incidence of all symptomatic fractures from 1989 to 1992 in an elderly, predominantly Caucasian population of males and females (⩾60 years as at 1 January 1989) living in the geographically isolated region of the city of Dubbo, NSW, Australia. Fractures were ascertained by reviewing reports from all radiology services in the region. There were 306 fractures in 271 patients during the study period representing 11 401 person-years of observation. In the 60–80 year age group only 10% of fractures involved the hip, while in the over-80 age group this proportion rose to 41%. Incidence of distal forearm, hip and total fractures increased exponentially in both sexes with increasing age. Rib fractures were relatively common, with incidence rates for rib fractures similar to those for humeral fractures. Overall fracture incidence was 2685 per 100000 person-years (males 1940 per 100000 and females 3250 per 100000). Residual lifetime fracture risk in a person aged 60 years with average life expectancy was 29% for males and 56% for females. Symptomatic fracture rates with the improved methodology in this study were higher than previously reported in both elderly males and females, with a marked preponderance of non-hip fractures in the 60–80 year age group. These symptomatic fractures have previously been underestimated, if not largely ignored, in public health approaches including cost—benefit analyses of osteoporosis prevention and treatment. Total fracture risk during later life is substantial, with fractures other than hip fractures constituting the majority of morbid fracture events, especially in the 60–80 year age group.