Factors for Determining Population Trends in Southern Pine Beetle 1 Spots

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Abstract
A means for predicting population trends of the southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmerman was effective on spots at Morrow Mountain State Park, NC, and the Calhoun Experimental Forest, SC, and in 2 ranger districts in the Sumter National Forest, SC. The primary predictive factor was the attack:emergence ratio. Five secondary factors were also used to improve the accuracy of predictions on static spots. All but 1 of the 12 spot-trend predictions made during the fall of 1973 were accurate 12 mo later; all but one of the predictions made during 1974 were accurate 8 mo later. Beetle spots predicted to decrease in the fall continued to do so for 6–9 mo, while increases were fully realized 3–6 mo later.

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