A Probability Model for Severe Cyclonic Storms Striking the Coast around the Bay of Bengal

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Abstract
We consider data on severe cyclonic storms striking the Day of Bengal coast during the period 1877–1977. In the literature these data have been modeled by a homogeneous Poisson process in which case times between storm occurrences are independent of one another, making prediction, and hence advance planning, impossible. We give some evidence against the adequacy of a Poisson process model and suggest a Poisson cluster model that appears to describe the data better. The features of fills model are such as to enable some planning procedures to he developed.

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