A Longitudinal Study Examining Prediction of Doctoral Success: Grade Point Average as Criterion, or Graduation vs. Non-Graduation as Criterion

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Abstract
A comparison of two different criteria of doctoral success is made using the criterion of doctoral grade point average (GPA) and the criterion of whether or not the student received a doctoral degree. The study is longitudinal in nature, and was restricted to one department (Education) at the University of North Dakota over a 7- year period. The GRE Quantitative correlated .34 with the graduated-not-graduated criterion, and −.01 with the doctoral GPA. Other variables had even more divergent results: the multiple correlation coefficient for the graduated-not-graduated criterion was .650, and the multiple correlation coefficient for the doctoral GPA criterion was .506. Hence, it was concluded that the two measures of doctoral success were in fact different.

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