Planning for Uncertainty: The Case of local Disaster Planning

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Abstract
Adoption of good disaster preparedness practices (practices) can mitigate recurrent problems in community disaster management. However, there are obstacles to adoption of such practices; these obstacles include lack of experience with disasters (experience) and lack of an effective planning process (planning). Since the uncertainty that results from insufficient experience is a given, while planning reflects an organizational choice, this study investigates whether effective planning compensates for lack of experience in promoting the adoption of good practices. Analyses of survey data reveal that jurisdictions with the most experience tend to have effective planning and to have adopted good practices. Among jurisdictions with little experience, those with effective planning are significantly more likely to have adopted good practices than those without it. Process-oriented planning activities, such as multidisciplinary simulations and task forces, are more effective than technical activities, such as writing standard procedures. Public agencies can therefore undertake planning activities that increase opportunities to prepare effectively for uncertain future events.

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