Thyroid Cancer: Cohort Analysis of Increasing Incidence in New York State, 1941–19622

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Abstract
Thyroid cancer incidence rates based on cases reported to the New York State Cancer Registry have more than doubled from 1941–62. The increase has occurred only in persons under age 55. Cohorts born prior to 1900 have about the same incidence at each age. After 1910 the rate at each age approximately doubles for each successive decade of birth. Changes in reporting and diagnosis cannot account for the increase, which seems to reflect a true increase in the disease. The change in the cohort pattern about 1910 coincides with the onset of X-ray therapy for thymic enlargement and strongly supports the hypothesis that irradiation in infancy and childhood is a significant causal factor in thyroid cancer. A method of cohort analysis allowing more precise determination of the year of change in cohort rates is described in the Appendix.

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