Estimation of Crop Acreage Flexibility Restraints for Evaluating on-Farm Alcohol Fuel Production in California

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Abstract
Crop acreage shifts brought about by on-farm alcohol fuel production will be constrained by factors other than the capacity of the distillery in the demand for alcohol fuel; institutional, marketing, machinery and price uncertainty also delimit the magnitude of crop acreage responses to changes in demand. This research was conducted to estimate flexibility constraints for the major crops grown in Yolo County, California for use in a linear programming optimization model constructed to evaluate the energetic and economic feasibility of on-farm alcohol fuel production. The pertinent literature was reviewed, with respect to research in the use of energy in the agricultural sector. Two alternative models were developed based upon published work undertaken on the Texas High Plains and subsequently applied to Yolo County crop production data. Both models were formulated as simple linear regression equations in which either the current year''s acreage or the previous 3 yr average is expressed as a function of last year''s acreage or the previous three years'' average acreage, respectively. The results were evaluated with conventional statistical measures, a model was selected, and acreage changes calculated.

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