Seasonality in the Consumer Response to Milk Advertising with Implications for Milk Promotion Policy

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Abstract
Permitting seasonal variation in the goodwill effect in measuring the impact of fluid milk advertising on milk sales in New York City improved the statistical significance of the estimating equation. The allocation of generic advertising dollars according to optimization rules during the period 1979–81 would have resulted in a 9 percent increase in returns to dairymen supplying the New York City market. Harmonic variables are used to account for seasonality, a Pascal distribution is used to account for the decay structure, and goodwill elasticities are estimated to indicate the impact of generic advertising on sales.

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