DISCUSSION. PREDICTING THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRUCTURAL ACCIDENTS.

Abstract
Proc. Instn Civ. Engrs, Part 2, 1976, 61, June, 437-441 7825 DISCUSSION Predicting the likelihood of structural accidents D. 1. BLOCKLEY Dr R. E. Melchers, Department of Civil Engineering, Monash University, Australia The usual probabilistic analysis of the occurrence of low strength together with some level of overload, does not bear much relationship to the actual occurrences of real failures. Often it is the so-called `rogue' eventsB-those which are not foreseen or go unnoticed-togetherwith poor organization, structures and processes which are incapable of filtering them out, which lead to some form of structural failure...

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