Dynamics of tuberculosis and economic growth

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Abstract
We find significant empirical links between the health structure of the population and the productive system of an economy that is subject to infectious disease, in particular tuberculosis. Consequently, development policy, aimed to improve the level of prosperity, has significant effects on the demographic-epidemiological dynamics of the population. Moreover, infectious diseases, such as tuberculosis, affect the size of the labour force and the productive capacity of the economy. We combine a Lotka-Volterra type system capturing the dynamics of TB epidemics with a Solow-Swan growth model where output is produced from capital and healthy labour. The demographic-epidemological parameters of the Lotka-Volterra type system are functions of GDP per healthy worker. We find significant differences between the most prosperous quartile and the rest of the world. In the former, the disease is eradicated whereas in the lowest three quartiles we predict damped capital and epidemic cycles converging to a population which is about 80 per cent of capacity and of whom about 2 per cent are TB infected. It follows that raising productivity in the lower quartiles is a critical policy aim.

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