The Perception of Future Events: Case Studies in Social Prediction
- 1 January 1958
- journal article
- Published by Oxford University Press (OUP) in Public Opinion Quarterly
- Vol. 22 (1) , 57-66
- https://doi.org/10.1086/266760
Abstract
By comparing the 1942 predictions of a group of professional and public people with the actual state of the world in 1952, the author attempts to determine the elements of successful prognostication. He points to some of the factors which tend to defeat accurate predictions, and describes the approach which minimizes these handicaps.Keywords
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