A Bayes estimator for ordered parameters and isotonic Bayesian graduation
- 1 October 1984
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Scandinavian Actuarial Journal
- Vol. 1984 (4) , 231-247
- https://doi.org/10.1080/03461238.1984.10413770
Abstract
The problem is to estimate the parameters θ 1 ..., θk under the order restriction θ 1 < ... < θk . A prior distribution is specified such that the probability of the set {(θ 1, ..., θk ): θ 1< ... <θk } is one. This guarantees that the mean of the posterior distribution (Bayes estimator) satisfies the order restriction. This technique, which produces a smoothing effect, is applied to the problem of estimating mortality rates over consecutive age intervals. In this application the result may be viewed as an isotonic Bayesian graduation. A real data example is provided.Keywords
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