International business cycles and the relative price of investment goods

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  • 1 January 2009
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      • Published in RePEc
Abstract
Is the relative price of investment goods a good proxy for investment frictions? We model this relative price in a flexible price international economy with two fundamental shocks, namely the total factor productivity (TFP) shock and the investment specific technology (IST) shock. The paper argues that the one-to-one correspondence between investment friction and the relative price of investment goods breaks down in an international economy because of the short run correlation between the terms of trade and the relative price of investment goods. The data congruent negative correlation between the investment rate and the relative price of investment goods thus does not necessarily reflect decline in investment frictions (rise in IST) as suggested by many studies. A calibration experiment with the US data demonstrates that such an inverse relation between rate of investment and the relative price of investment goods basically reflects the positive effect of TFP on the terms of trade for a broad range of econ mies where the home bias in consumption exceeds investment and there is a sizable adjustment cost of investment. A regression experiment with major OECD countries provided empirical support of the fact that terms of trade effect on the relative price of investment is important
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