Statistical Analysis and Updated Climatology of Explosive Cyclones

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Abstract
A statistical analysis of 12 and 24 hour deepening rates for all surface lows analyzed on at least two successive NMC 12 hourly “front half” hemispheric surface charts was performed for one year of data. Both 12 and 24 hour deepening distributions showed statistically significant (at the 5% level) departures from normality, with the largest deviations occurring along the tail of the distribution associated with most rapid deepening. The sum of two normal curves of different means and standard deviations was successfully fitted to the deepening distributions, suggesting that most cases of explosive cyclogenesis are the result of some additional physical mechanism distinct from ordinary baroclinic instability. The climatology of explosive cyclones (Sanders and Gyakum) was updated to include the 1979–82 cold seasons, and compared to the previous three-year sample. In addition, a climatology of formation positions, maximum deepening positions and dissipation positions for all cyclones in a one-year d... Abstract A statistical analysis of 12 and 24 hour deepening rates for all surface lows analyzed on at least two successive NMC 12 hourly “front half” hemispheric surface charts was performed for one year of data. Both 12 and 24 hour deepening distributions showed statistically significant (at the 5% level) departures from normality, with the largest deviations occurring along the tail of the distribution associated with most rapid deepening. The sum of two normal curves of different means and standard deviations was successfully fitted to the deepening distributions, suggesting that most cases of explosive cyclogenesis are the result of some additional physical mechanism distinct from ordinary baroclinic instability. The climatology of explosive cyclones (Sanders and Gyakum) was updated to include the 1979–82 cold seasons, and compared to the previous three-year sample. In addition, a climatology of formation positions, maximum deepening positions and dissipation positions for all cyclones in a one-year d...

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