Business Cycles in the New EU Member Countries and their Conformity with the Euro Area
- 8 June 2005
- journal article
- Published by Organisation for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) in Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis
- Vol. 2005 (1) , 7-41
- https://doi.org/10.1787/jbcma-2005-5km7v183wfr5
Abstract
We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the new EU member countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of new EU member countries, which turns out to be in general lower than that between the EU-15 countries (the Baltic countries constitute an exception). With respect to the euro area, the indications of synchronization are also generally low and lower relative to the position obtaining for countries taking part in previous enlargements (with the exceptions of Poland, Slovenia and Hungary). We analyse the evolution of the business cycle in the new EU member countries, after a careful examination of the seasonal properties of the available series and the required modification of the cycle dating procedures. We then focus on the degree of cyclical concordance within the group of new EU member countries, which turns out to be in general lower than that between the EU-15 countries (the Baltic countries constitute an exception). With respect to the euro area, the indications of synchronization are also generally low and lower relative to the position obtaining for countries taking part in previous enlargements (with the exceptions of Poland, Slovenia and Hungary).Keywords
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