Preempting Quality Challengers in House Elections

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Abstract
Why do strong challengers oppose incumbents in some House districts and not in others? This paper compares the influence of several different strategic considerations which attract or dissuade good challengers: national political tides (Jacobson and Kernell, 1983), district level political forces (Bond et al., 1985), and preemptive spending by incumbents (Goldenberg et al., 1986). Examination of House races from 1972 to 1980 suggests that the local political climate plays the greatest role in determining the quality of a district's challenger, while the impact of national tides fluctuates, and preemptive spending has little effect. These findings shed light on the actions of House incumbents and the dynamics of congressional elections.