Long-term trends in the arrival dates of spring migrants

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Abstract
Data on the spring arrival dates of 23 species of migrants in Leicestershire over a 50-year period are presented. Chiffchaff, Sand Martin, Blackcap and Sedge Warbler showed a significant trend towards earlier arrival over the period, while Tree Pipit, Cuckoo, Whinchat, Whitethroat and Garden Warbler showed a significant trend towards later arrival. Fifteen species arrived noticeably earlier in the 1940s, a period of warm springs, while several species showed earlier arrivals in the 1980s. A number of species showed later arrival dates in the 1960s and 1970s, when April temperatures were colder than average. Several species showed significant correlations between arrival date and temperature. Arrival dates of the earliest species were much more variable than those arriving later, while species arriving in the second half of April showed a generally synchronous arrival. The results are discussed in the context of global warming.