Alcohol and the 1950-90 Hungarian Suicide Trend - Is There a Causal Connection?

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Abstract
Hungary has experienced a dramatic increase in suicide rates since World War II. In this paper, the trend is analysed in relation to changes in per capita alcohol consumption. It is demonstrated that the two trends are almost perfectly correlated. Time series analysis of filtered (de-trended) data uncovers a significant relationship at lag one year. Thus, changes in alcohol consumption tend to be followed by similar changes in suicide rates the following year. This pattern is found for both males and females. This result is discussed in light of results from other studies of alcohol and suicide in Hungary