THE TIME COURSE OF REPEAT BURGLARY VICTIMIZATION

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Abstract
Research has demonstrated that the probability of repeat victimization is greater than the probability of an independent offence. The time course of elevated risk has important implications for crime prevention. For burglaries, the current received wisdom is that the characteristics of homes which make burglary more probable persist over the medium and long term. Addressing the time course question, previous research by the authors examined the change in risk of repeat burglary victimization for up to twelve months after the initial offence (Polvi et al. 1990). The study is here extended to the analysis of a four-year time period (1984 to 1987). It was found that the elevated risk of repeat burglary does not last over long time periods. Based on the present data, the risk becomes average once six months has passed and remains so subsequently. It is contended that the work should be replicated, given its surprising results. One implication of this research is that preventative action should be taken as soon as possible after a burglary.

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