Bayesian Estimation of Core-Melt Probability
- 1 January 1984
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Nuclear Science and Engineering
- Vol. 86 (1) , 111-112
- https://doi.org/10.13182/nse84-a17975
Abstract
A very simple application of the canonical Bayesian algorithm is made to the problem of estimation of the probability of core melt in a commercial power reactor. An approximation to the results of the Rasmussen study on reactor safety is used as the prior distribution, and the observation that there has been no core melt yet is used as the single experiment. The result is a substantial decrease in the mean probability of core melt—factors of 2 to 4 for reasonable choices of parameters. The purpose is to illustrate the procedure, not to argue for the decrease.Keywords
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