Short-Term Load Forecasting Using General Exponential Smoothing
- 1 March 1971
- journal article
- Published by Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE) in IEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems
- Vol. PAS-90 (2) , 900-911
- https://doi.org/10.1109/tpas.1971.293123
Abstract
An essential component of a comprehensive, real-time control center for power systems is a method for the calculation of short-term load forecasts. This paper explores the use of general exponential smoothing to develop an adaptive forecasting system based on observed values of integrated hourly demand. A model is developed which offers high accuracy and operational simplicity. Forecasts of hourly MWH load with lead times of one to twenty-four hours are computed at hourly intervals throughout the week. A pragmatic viewpoint is maintained throughout the paper, which includes an analysis of two years of hourly load data, test results for the method developed, and discussions of adjustments for holidays and weather disturbances.Keywords
This publication has 4 references indexed in Scilit:
- An Application of State Estimation to Short-Term Load Forecasting, Part I: Forecasting ModelingIEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, 1970
- An Application of State Estimation to Short-Term Load Forecasting, Part II: ImplementationIEEE Transactions on Power Apparatus and Systems, 1970
- Techniques for load prediction in the electricity-supply industryProceedings of the Institution of Electrical Engineers, 1968
- A New Approach to Linear Filtering and Prediction ProblemsJournal of Basic Engineering, 1960