Simulating Codling Moth Population Dynamics: Model Development, Validation, and Sensitivity 1

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Abstract
A population model of the codling moth, Laspeyresia pomonella (L.), is presented which simulates population behavior over several years. Derivation of the theoretical and biological structure of this model is discussed on a state by state basis. Each transition equation is developed around a central framework which separates density-dependent and -independent effects. These equations are then fitted to observed data. The transition equations are assembled into a computer program, CODMOTH. Output from this program shows acceptable agreement with observed data from field and laboratory, indicating that the model can adequately simulate population behavior for at least 5 yr. Model sensitivity to equation parameters and program constants is examined to determine the allowable error for these values. Model output varies by only 10% if a parameter is changed by an avg of 45%. The significance of the density-dependence component of each equation is examined. Feedback processes are found to be most important in the fecundity and 1st-instar survival equations. Sex ratio and voltinism are least affected while larval survival within the apple and survival to cocooning sites are intermediately affected.

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