Simulation of Intraseasonal Yield Fluctuations of Tea in Malawi

Abstract
SUMMARY: Concentration of tea yields in Malawi into regular successive peaks within the main growing season is the cause of severe economic problems. A model of the causes of these peaks has been developed and its explanatory power is confirmed in the light of empirical tests of its component parts and predictions. A computer version of the model is presented and its predictive power demonstrated. Use of the model to explore relations between weather and yields is discussed, with indications of its limitations for this purpose.