Abstract
Several studies of unemployment have correlated local against national trends, using lead–lag relationships to identify the temporal coherence between the two. This introduces problems because the local trend contributes to the national trend. Simulations on hypothetical data suggest that the frequency distributions for expected lead–lag coefficients are closely related in their shapes both to the absolute size of the town and to its relative size within the system being studied; for the largest town, the results are highly predictable.

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