Comparison of Anthropometric Characteristics in Predicting the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in the EPIC-Potsdam Study

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Abstract
Obesity is a well-established risk factor for type 2 diabetes (1–3). However, while several studies (4–10) suggest that anthropometric measurements that describe central fat distribution are superior in predicting type 2 diabetes compared with measurements of general adiposity, this issue remains controversial (11–14). The aim of this study was to compare different anthropometric measurements and derived estimates of body composition, in particular BMI, waist-to-height ratio, waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), metric index, and percentage body fat, in their ability to predict risk of type 2 diabetes in a large prospective cohort study of men and women. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam study includes 27,548 subjects, 16,644 women aged mainly 35–65 years and 10,904 men aged mainly 40–65 years, from the general population of Potsdam, Germany, recruited between 1994 and 1998 (15). The baseline examination included anthropometric measurements (16,17) as well as a personal interview and a questionnaire on prevalent diseases and sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. Follow-up questionnaires have been administered every 2–3 years. Response rates for follow-up rounds 1, 2, 3, and 4 were 96, 95, 91, and 90% (31 August 2005), respectively. All potential incident cases of diabetes were verified by the diagnosing physician using …