Prediction of Cardiovascular Deaths and Non‐fatal Reinfarctions after Myocardial Infarction

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Abstract
The development and validation of a logistic multivariate prognostic function in patients followed for 2 yr after myocardial infarction was studied. The patients studied constituted at least 90% of all cases in a total community [Goteborg, Sweden]. Using a multivariate logistic function with 4 variables, based on 30 cardiovascular deaths during 2 yr after discharge from hospital among 292 men with 1st infarction, breathlessness at onset of symptoms of infarction, SGOT [serum glutamic oxaloacetic transaminase] quartile, left heart failure, relative heart size, atrial fibrillation, a history of hypertension, and AV block recorded during the hospital phase were the most important variables. The first 5 of these variables made significant contributions (P < 0.01) to the predictive power. The predictive capacity was confirmed in an independent series of 195 men with 1st infarction, among whom 17 cardiovascular deaths occurred. Around 60% of the total cardiovascular mortality was concentrated in the highest risk quintile. Deaths from non-cardiovascular causes were predicted less efficiently. Non-fatal recurrences could not be predicted by the present model. The function can predict the excess risk of mortality but not the excess risk of reinfarction during 2 yr among men after an initial myocardial infarction.