Question Wording and Public Support for Contra Aid, 1983-1986

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Abstract
How does question wording affect the results of polls? How can we distinguish question wording effects from genuine change? In this analysis, we make use of a series of polls concerning President Reagan's policy toward Nicaragua. We identify five variations in wording in the survey items that have been used on this topic, and we find evidence that these are responsible for variations in support for the Contras. If the ideological nature of the Sandinistas, President Reagan, the amount of money to be spent, and/or the role of the Contras are mentioned, or if a balanced question format is employed, the poll results can be substantially affected. Once these factors are controlled for, we can argue that there was a small but statistically significant increase in support for Reagan's policy over the period 1983–1986.

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