A Stochastic Model for the Management of the Northwestern Atlantic Harp Seal (Pagophilus groenlandicus) Population

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Abstract
A stochastic model is developed that takes into account the variations in natural mortality and the landsmen''s high arctic and Greenland catches. The Canadian-Norwegian large vessel hunt is controlled under quota regulations. The model is nonlinear, a result of changes in fertility and fecundity rates in response to shifts in population size. The maximum sustainable yield (MSY) 1 + population size is determined to be 1.6 million seals, or a breeding stock size of 375,000 seals. The MSY is approximately 240,000 seals assuming the hunt continues its present pattern. The 240,000 can further be split into 200,000 pups and 40,000 1+ seals. Present stock size is approximately 1.2 million and a total allowable catch of 170,000 seals will allow the population size to reach to MSY level in 10-15 yr. A number of other management strategies are considered, in addition to prospects for future research.

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