Seasonal Diagnostic and Predictability of Rainfall in Subtropical South America Based on Tropical Pacific SST

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Abstract
The seasonality of the simultaneous relationship between tropical Pacific SST and rainfall, as well as rainfall predictability one season in advance in subtropical South America (25°–40°S), is studied using different multivariate techniques. This study shows that ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in subtropical South America are restricted mostly to regions on the eastern and western sides of the continent and mainly during the second half of the year. The relationship is almost exclusively of the warm–wet/cold–dry type, but a more widespread impact is found when anomalously warm conditions prevail in the equatorial Pacific. A spatially coherent region with a significant warm–wet/cold–dry signal is detected in southeastern South America during austral spring (October–November), including southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, Uruguay, and eastern Argentina. This signal moves inland toward the west from spring to early summer. During late winter (July–August), a similar SST–rainfall relationship is fou... Abstract The seasonality of the simultaneous relationship between tropical Pacific SST and rainfall, as well as rainfall predictability one season in advance in subtropical South America (25°–40°S), is studied using different multivariate techniques. This study shows that ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in subtropical South America are restricted mostly to regions on the eastern and western sides of the continent and mainly during the second half of the year. The relationship is almost exclusively of the warm–wet/cold–dry type, but a more widespread impact is found when anomalously warm conditions prevail in the equatorial Pacific. A spatially coherent region with a significant warm–wet/cold–dry signal is detected in southeastern South America during austral spring (October–November), including southern Brazil, southern Paraguay, Uruguay, and eastern Argentina. This signal moves inland toward the west from spring to early summer. During late winter (July–August), a similar SST–rainfall relationship is fou...

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