Watershed management: A systems approach

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Abstract
A systems approach to land use management decision making in wildland areas is developed and demonstrated by using a hypothetical example. A major component of this systems approach is a chance‐constrained programing model for investigating the effects of risk and uncertainty on land use management decisions. The solution of the chance‐constrained model indicates the most efficient set of land use management activities for reaching specified goals subject to certain requirements and regulations. In addition to indicating the type and extent of land use management activities for a specific area, the systems approach provides additional results and conclusions concerning more general aspects of land use management decision making. The development and solution of the chance‐constrained model indicate that the risk and uncertainty associated with the system physical and economic parameters can significantly affect the design of land use management activities. The model results further suggest that future outdoor recreational demand and benefits are important factors in the design of land use management activities. The solution of the chance‐constrained model indicates that forest management practices to increase stream‐flows may have only a minimal effect on the design and operation of downstream reservoirs.

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