Abstract
The oceanic and atmospheric anomalies of the winter of 1971–72, markedly different from those Prevailing during the 1960's, are described, analyzed, and subjected to experimental objective predictions. Sea-surface temperature patterns over the North Pacific developed in such a slow, orderly fashion from fall 1971 to the following winter that a kinematic treatment successfully captured the evolution. Physical processes associated with this evolution are investigated and show that local air-sea heat exchange played a negligible role relative to winter-mass transport around the North Pacific oceanic gyre. The resulting winter sea-surface temperature pattern appeared to place demands on the overlying circulation, producing anomalous atmospheric flow patterns at sea level and aloft. A multiple-regression analysis based on 20 independent winters’ data was successfully used to predict the probable winter 1971–72 sea-level pressure pattern from the observed fall 1971 sea-surface temperature pattern. Finally the winter 1971–72 regime is considered as a break with the prevailing state of the winters since 1958, posing the unanswered question of whether a new climatic regime is emerging for the 1970's.