Population Dynamics of Barnacle Geese Branta leucopsis Breeding in Svalbard, 1948-1976

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Abstract
Numbers, breeding distribution and dynamics of a closed goose population are analyzed using data from 1948-1976, during which period the numbers increased from about 300 to 7200. The birds now nest mainly on coastal islands, and although the population has more than doubled since 1970, there was little range expansion. Mortality was high in the late sixties, but decreased to an average of 10% in the 1970. This, together with a slight improvement in breeding success, allowed numbers to increase. The weather in Svalbard [Arctic Ocean, Norway] is the main factor regulating recruitment, although winter conditions, in their effect on the ability of the geese to build-up body reserves, affect the population''s breeding potential. Future population levels are discussed. The availability of nesting habitats will eventually limit recruitment; if it is limited to the present level, numbers are likely to stabilize between 8000-12,000 birds.

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