Multiple- versus Single-Index Predictors of Dangerousness, Suicide, and other Rare Behaviors
- 1 October 1979
- journal article
- research article
- Published by SAGE Publications in Psychological Reports
- Vol. 45 (2) , 343-349
- https://doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1979.45.2.343
Abstract
The principle that prediction of low base-rate events based on test signs may be grossly in error in the direction of overprediction is argued to be limited to situations where single-index predictors are used. An example is presented of a three-variable Boolean function which accurately distinguishes 70% of true positive instances and 100% of true negative instances in a situation where the base rate of the predicted event is 100 per 100,000.This publication has 9 references indexed in Scilit:
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