Predicting Alcohol Use in Young Adult Males:

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Abstract
The prediction of regular controlled versus regular uncontrolled drinking is used to examine the efficiency and adequacy of two social-psychological theoretical formulations. These are Fishbein and Ajzen's Theory of Reasoned Action, and Jessor and Jessor's Problem Behavior Theory. The Fishbein-Ajzen formulation demonstrated significant mediational capacity, but a model which combined variables from both the Fishbein-Ajzen model and Problem Behavior Theory was a significantly better predictor of both drinker status and intentions to get drunk. From a theoretical perspective, these data challenge the adequacy of the Theory of Reasoned Action, in that distal variables from Problem Behavior Theory were found to impact on intentions and behavior independently rather than thought on intentions and behavior independently rather than through the attitudinal and normative components. The extent to which Ajzen's recent Theory of Planned Behavior addresses this inadequacy is discussed. Finally, the authors point out that the seriousness of this theoretical inadequacy may vary with the behavior in question, and that from a practical perspective, the parsimony of the model relative to other models (such as Problem Behavior Theory) together with its ability to account for a significant portion of the variance present a reasonable case for its utility in predicting regular controlled-regular uncontrolled drinking. However for understanding the behavior, knowledge of "external" variables that add to prediction over and above the Fishbein-Ajzen components will advance both theory (by defining more precisely what is not subsumed under the Fishbein-Ajzen components, thus suggesting ways in which the theory might by improved), and practice (by enhancing the development of more targeted and precise intervention strategies based on a more in-depth understanding of the determinants-both proximal and distal-of problem behaviors).

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