Statistical prediction of maximum avalanche run-out distances from topographic data in the western Catalan Pyrenees (northeast Spain)

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Abstract
We present regression models to estimate maximum avalanche run-out distances in the western Catalan Pyrenees (northeast Spain). The regression equations have been calculated from topographic parameters of 216 well-known avalanche paths, mapped on avalanche location maps at a scale of 1: 50 000. Historical information about avalanche maximum run-out zones has been available for some avalanche paths hut most of them have been delimited by vegetation and geomorphological indices.The avalanche profiles, which are representative of avalanche paths, have been classified on the basis of avalanche run-out zone morphology, because this has a considerable influence on avalanche behaviour and run-out. Three classes have been defined and regression equations obtained for each class and also for the total. Finally, some examples have been calculated in order to appreciate the applicability of the models to improving avalanche mapping.