In Search of Leading Indicators of Economic Activity in Germany

Preprint
Publisher Website
Google Scholar
  • 1 January 2003
    • preprint
      • Published in RePEc
Abstract
In this Paper we present two new composite leading indicators of economic activity in Germany estimated using a dynamic factor model with and without regime switching. The obtained optimal inferences of business cycle turning points indicate that the two-state regime switching procedure leads to a successful representation of the sample data and provides an appropriate tool for forecasting business conditions.
All Related Versions

This publication has 0 references indexed in Scilit: