Cardiovascular risk assessment in persons with HIV infection in the developing world: comparing three risk equations in a cohort of HIV-infected Thais

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Abstract
There is growing concern regarding cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected individuals in developing countries such as Thailand. We evaluated the 10-year risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) in a Thai HIV-infected cohort using three cardiovascular risk equations, and assessed the level of agreement among their predictions. We carried out a cross-sectional analysis of data on 785 Thai subjects followed prospectively in the HIV Netherlands Australia Thailand Collaboration (HIV-NAT) cohort study from 1996 to 2009. Cardiovascular risk factor history, along with relevant laboratory and clinical data, was collected at follow-up clinic visits. Ten-year risks of CHD were calculated using the Framingham, Ramathibodi-Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand (Rama-EGAT) and Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) risk equations. The mean age of the patients was 41.0 years; 55% of the subjects were male. The mean duration of antiretroviral therapy was 7.7 years. The prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors was low, with the most common risk factor being low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) (36.3%). The prevalence of high cardiovascular risk scores (defined as 10-year risk of CHD≥10%) was also low: 9.9, 2.1 and 0.8%, by the Framingham, Rama-EGAT and D:A:D scoring systems, respectively. Only eight subjects (1.0%) had a history of CHD. Bland-Altman plots showed that the Framingham equation predicted a higher risk of CVD compared with the Rama-EGAT and D:A:D equations, which agreed relatively well. The predicted cardiovascular risk in this HIV-infected Thai cohort was relatively low. The agreement among the Rama-EGAT and D:A:D risk scores suggests that both equations may be appropriate estimators of cardiovascular risk in this population.