Conventional forces can explain the anomalous acceleration of Pioneer 10

Anderson et al. find the measured trajectories of Pioneer 10 and 11 spacecrafts deviate from the trajectories computed from known forces acting on them. This unmodeled acceleration (and the less well known, but similar, unmodeled torque) can be accounted for by non-isotropic radiation of spacecraft heat. Various forms of non-isotropic radiation were proposed by Katz, Murphy, and Scheffer, but Anderson et al. felt that none of these could explain the observed effect. This paper calculates the known effects in more detail and considers new sources of radiation, all based on spacecraft construction. These effects are then modeled over the duration of the experiment. The model reproduces the acceleration from its appearance at a heliocentric distance of 5 AU to the last measurement at 71 AU to within 10%. However, it predicts a larger decrease in acceleration between intervals I and III of the Pioneer 10 observations than is observed. This is a $2\sigma$ discrepancy from the average of the three analyses (SIGMA, CHASMP, and Markwardt). A more complex (but more speculative) model provides a somewhat better fit. Radiation forces can also plausibly explain the previously unmodeled torques, including the spindown of Pioneer 10 that is directly proportional to spacecraft bus heat, and the slow but constant spin-up of Pioneer 11. In any case, by accounting for the bulk of the acceleration, the proposed mechanism makes it much more likely that the entire effect can be explained without the need for new physics.