Epidemic outbreaks on structured populations

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Abstract
Our chances to halt epidemic outbreaks rely on how accurately we represent the population structure underlying the disease spread. When analyzing global epidemics this force us to consider metapopulation models taking into account intra- and inter-community interactions. Recently Watts et al introduced a metapopulation which accounts for several features observed in real outbreaks [Watts et al, PNAS 102, 11157 (2005)]. In this work I provide an analytical solution to this model, significantly enhancing our understanding of the model and the epidemic outbreaks it represents. I show that global epidemics are characterized by the intra-community expected outbreak size and the fraction of social bridges, individuals belonging to different communities. I demonstrate that depending on the product between these two magnitudes the epidemic dies out or spread globally. This model also explains the observation of resurgent epidemics and I demonstrate that they are determined by the intra-community average distance between individuals. Finally, I present empirical data for AIDS epidemics supporting the model predictions.

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