A Demonstration of Hindsight Bias Using the Thomas Confirmation Vote
- 1 April 1993
- journal article
- research article
- Published by SAGE Publications in Psychological Reports
- Vol. 72 (2) , 377-378
- https://doi.org/10.2466/pr0.1993.72.2.377
Abstract
The Clarence Thomas confirmation vote provided an opportunity to demonstrate hindsight bias in a repeated-measures design using an ongoing political event. The 57 subjects displayed statistically significant memory distortions in recalling a higher number of confirming senatorial votes when asked one month after the vote to recall the estimate they had provided the day before the vote.Keywords
This publication has 5 references indexed in Scilit:
- Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known.Psychological Bulletin, 1990
- Reduction of hindsight bias by restoration of foresight perspective: Effectiveness of foresight-encoding and hindsight-retrieval strategiesOrganizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 1987
- Hindsight Distortion: “I knew‐it‐all along and I was sure about it”1Journal of Applied Social Psychology, 1986
- Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance, 1975
- I knew it would happenOrganizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1975