Implications of the Statement: No Side Effects Were Observed

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Abstract
To the Editor: In the description of a therapeutic trial for a particular drug, the statement is often found that none of the patients encountered side effects. A rule of thumb makes clear what this apparently reassuring statement implies in practice. This rule of thumb reads, "When no side-effects are observed in n patients, it is unlikely that the probability of side effects is larger than three in n, and this probability will almost surely not exceed five in n." Derivation of the rule. Let p denote the probability of side effects in the population of all patients who might . . .

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