Monthly Forecast of the Madden–Julian Oscillation Using a Coupled GCM

Open Access
Publisher Website
Google Scholar
Abstract
A set of five-member ensemble forecasts initialized daily for 48 days during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment period are performed with the ECMWF monthly forecasting system in order to assess its skill in predicting a Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event. Results show that the model is skillful in predicting the evolution of the MJO up to about 14 days, but the amplitude of the MJO is damped after a few days of integration. In addition, the model has some deficiencies in propagating the MJO through the Maritime Continent. The same experiment framework is used to quantify the impacts of changing the model physics, the ocean model, the atmospheric horizontal resolution, and the initial conditions on the skill of the monthly forecasting system. Results show that there is a scope for extending the skillful range of the operational monthly forecasting system to predict the evolution of the MJO by at least a week. This is achieved by using an improved c... Abstract A set of five-member ensemble forecasts initialized daily for 48 days during the Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Response Experiment period are performed with the ECMWF monthly forecasting system in order to assess its skill in predicting a Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event. Results show that the model is skillful in predicting the evolution of the MJO up to about 14 days, but the amplitude of the MJO is damped after a few days of integration. In addition, the model has some deficiencies in propagating the MJO through the Maritime Continent. The same experiment framework is used to quantify the impacts of changing the model physics, the ocean model, the atmospheric horizontal resolution, and the initial conditions on the skill of the monthly forecasting system. Results show that there is a scope for extending the skillful range of the operational monthly forecasting system to predict the evolution of the MJO by at least a week. This is achieved by using an improved c...