Predicting Tree Mortality Induced by Spruce Budworm: A Discussion

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Abstract
Forest managers have expressed the need for guidelines that would predict, up to 5 years, the annual spruce budworm damage on a stand basis. Reasons why reliable prediction is generally not possible are discussed. It is suggested that long-term management programs, that would take into consideration periodic losses resulting from recurring budworm outbreaks and that would be based on regional differences in the vulnerability of fir-spruce stands, should be implemented. Key words: Spruce budworm, Choristoneura fumiferana; forest management; tree mortality; defoliation; stand vulnerability, balsam fir, Abies balsamea.