Quantification of factors affecting the probability of development of pathogenic bacteria, in particularClostridium botulinum, in foods

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Abstract
The success of a preservation method with respect toClostridium botulinum can be measured by its effect on the probability that a single spore would result in growth and formation of toxin. In canned, low-acid foods, the minimum heat-process is designed to reduce the probability of survival of a single, heat-resistant spore ofC. botulinum by a factor of 1012. In some foods, safety depends on the combination of inactivation and inhibition ofC. botulinum. The degree of protection (Pr) can be expressed asPr=Ds+In, whereDs is the decimal destruction of spores ofC. botulinum andIn is the decimal inhibition. A similar approach can be used in the case of other bacteria.Pr=log 1/P, whereP=the probability that an individual spore or bacterium will survive and result in growth.P can be estimated as the number of spores or bacteria that survive and initiate growth in a culture medium or food divided by the number of viable spores or bacteria inoculated into the medium or food. The effects of combinations of preservative factors can be measured by their effect onP at a stated temperature for a stated time. In experiments to determine the effects of preservative factors on an anaerobic bacterium such asC. botulinum it is essential that oxygen should be eliminated, unless it is controlled as an inhibitory factor. Thus experiments in culture media should be done under strictly anaerobic conditions at a known, low redox potential. The results of experiments to determine the effects of preservative factors onP after a series of incubation times can be modeled by methods similar to those used to model the effect of preservative factors on rate of growth and on lag period. Experiments to determine the effect of preservative factors on the probability of growth from a single spore or bacterium ofC. botulinum are discussed. A few reports of similar experiments with other bacteria have been published and are described. This approach has the advantage that it takes account of the inoculum level of bacteria.