Countering a Counter-Intuitive Probability
- 1 December 1972
- journal article
- Published by Cambridge University Press (CUP) in Philosophy of Science
- Vol. 39 (4) , 523-524
- https://doi.org/10.1086/288476
Abstract
Professor Copi provides us with the following example:Remove all cards except aces and kings from a deck, so that only eight cards remain, of which four are aces and four are kings. From this abbreviated deck, deal two cards to a friend. If he looks at his cards and announces (truthfully) that his hand contains an ace, what is the probability that both his cards are aces? If he announces instead that one of his cards is the ace of spades, what is the probability then that both his cards are aces? (These two probabilities are not the same!) ([1], p. 433)Keywords
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