A Model of the Dynamics and Control of an Outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease in Feral Pigs in Australia
- 1 April 1988
- journal article
- research article
- Published by JSTOR in Journal of Applied Ecology
- Vol. 25 (1) , 63-77
- https://doi.org/10.2307/2403610
Abstract
A model of the progress of an outbreak of foot and mouth disease in a single population of feral pigs, Sus scrofa (Linnaeus), is described. The population was divided into categories according to disease status: susceptible, latent, infective or immune. Taking into account natural recruitment and mortality, and mortality due to foot and mouth disease, the number of animals in each of these categories is predicted over the duration of an outbreak. Results suggest that, for floodplain habitat in semi-arid eastern Australia, the threshold feral pig density for the disease to persist is 2.3-14 km-2. The large uncertainty is due to limited data for estimating the disease transmission coefficient. Very high culling rates (> 95%) are required for rapid disease eradication in, for example, < 21 days. Lower culling rates could be effective if a longer outbreak is acceptable.Keywords
This publication has 1 reference indexed in Scilit:
- Graeme Caughley and the fundamentals of population ecology: a personal viewWildlife Research, 2009