Policy Learning and Uncertainty: The Case of Pension Reform in Estonia and Latvia

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Abstract
This article addresses the question, under what conditions does the need for urgent solutions to societal problems lead to transferring a policy designed for another political system? The argument developed in the article is based on the theoretical frameworks of learning and historical institutionalism. I have posited that the urgent need for quick solutions to existing policy problems is a catalyst for policy transfer only if there is not enough prior successful experience with self‐designed policy reforms. The theoretical argument is tested using the case of pension reform in Estonia and Latvia, which proves to be difficult to explain with the arguments in the existing policy transfer literature.