On the rationality of US macroeconomic forecasts: evidence from a panel of professional forecasters
- 1 July 1993
- journal article
- research article
- Published by Taylor & Francis in Applied Economics
- Vol. 25 (7) , 869-878
- https://doi.org/10.1080/00036849300000066
Abstract
ASA–NBER survey data is used to check the rationality of US macroeconomic forecasts. It is found that of 75 forecast series examined, 51 are biased, 25 are both unbiased and efficient and only two pass the null hypothesis of orthogonality. This calls into question the validity of rational expectations hypothesis.Keywords
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