Toward a Mathematical Theory of the Offensive/Defensive Balance

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Abstract
Jack Levy argues that the offensive/defensive balance needs to be defined more explicitly and rigorously before it can be used in historical analysis. We offer a more explicit and rigorous theory of the offensive/defensive balance based on Hembold conventional war equations (a generalization of Lanchester equations) and Intriligator nuclear war equations. We operationally define the offensive/defensive balance based on weapons characteristics, geography, military organization, perceptions of decisionmakers, and, to some extent, tactics. Our offensive/defensive theory illustrates the validity of many of Levy's criticisms of the offensive/defensive concept in historical studies, solves some of the conceptual problems, and provides a stronger theoretical foundation for analysts who will employ the concept in future studies.

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