Innumeracy About Minority Populations

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Abstract
We use a small but nationally representative sample to investigate the sources of innumeracy regarding the proportion of blacks, Hispanics, and Jews in the U.S. population. In addition to a number of standard demographic differences, we find that overestimates are closely related to region as well as to the density of the local black/Hispanic population. The extent to which minority populations are perceived as a kind of threat is also related to perceived proportions, though the direction of causality cannot be determined. We discuss the meaningfulness of these population estimates and speculate on whether trying to improve them would alter attitudes toward minorities.

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